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International Monetary Fund:2012 Asia-Pacific region is expected to appear strong growth国际货币基金组织:2012年亚太地区有望出现强劲增长

时间:2012-4-28 13:50:01  作者:不详  来源:网络转载  查看:664  评论:0
内容摘要:The April 27, 2012 Asia-Pacific area economic growth in the fourth quarter of 2011is expected to slow in 2012, a strong rebound, but the region 's policymakers are faced with the difficult policy adjustment, in order to maintain to ensure economic stability and growth environment required, this is the IMF's released a new report as one of the main content.2012年4月27日 亚太地区经济增长在2011年第四季度放缓后,有望在2012年出现强劲反弹,但该地区的决策者们则面临着艰巨的政策调整,以维持确保经济稳定和非通胀增长所需的环境,这是国际货币基金组织最新发布一份报告的主要内容之一。

 

International Monetary Fund:2012 Asia-Pacific region is expected to appear strong growth国际货币基金组织:2012年亚太地区有望出现强劲增长

 

 2012年4月27日 亚太地区经济增长在2011年第四季度放缓后,有望在2012年出现强劲反弹,但该地区的决策者们则面临着艰巨的政策调整,以维持确保经济稳定和非通胀增长所需的环境,这是国际货币基金组织最新发布一份报告的主要内容之一。

The April 27, 2012 Asia-Pacific area economic growth in the fourth quarter of 2011is expected to slow in 2012, a strong rebound, but the region 's policymakers are faced with the difficult policy adjustment, in order to maintain to ensure economic stability and growth environment required, this is the IMF's released a new report as one of the main content.

  基金组织在4月27日发布的《亚太地区经济展望》报告中指出,尽管2011年第四季度亚太地区的经济活动明显放慢,但受益于国内需求持续保持强劲,该地区国家目前失业率较低、产能利用率较高、信贷增长强劲。因此,2012年第一季度,亚太地区已出现强劲反弹迹象,经济活动的先行指标加强,通胀预期上升,新兴亚洲市场的资本流入出现增长。

The IMF released in April 27th" regional economic outlook" report that, although the fourth quarter of 2011Asia-Pacific economic activity slowed down significantly, but benefit from domestic demand continued to remain strong, the region of the country the current unemployment rate is low, capacity utilization rate is higher, credit growth is strong. Therefore, the first quarter of 2012, the Asia-Pacific region has a strong rebound signs, economic activity index of go ahead of the rest to strengthen, inflation expectations rise, emerging Asia capital inflow growth.

  报告预计,2012年亚太地区总体增长将与去年基本持平达6%,2013年的增长率将提高到6.5%左右;但报告同时指出,亚太地区国家之间也存在相当可观的差距,在以中国和印度为代表的“新兴亚洲”的增长率分别达8.25%和将近7%的同时,预计包括日本、澳大利亚、新西兰在内“工业化亚洲”的增长率仅为2.2%。

Report is expected in2012, the Asia-Pacific region overall growth will with keep balance basically last year reached 6%, in 2013 the growth rate will be raised to about 6.5%; however, the report also pointed out, the countries of the Asia-Pacific region also exists considerable gap, with China and India as the representative of the" New Asia" growth rates were 8.25% and nearly 7% at the same time, is expected to include Japan, Australia, New Zealand," industrialized Asian"2.2% growth rate.

  报告认为,由于全球经济依然脆弱,亚洲仍存在严重的下滑风险。在目前欧元区债务危机没有完全解决的情况下,其金融动荡仍可能加剧并向全球传播。对亚太地区而言,对发达经济体的出口的急剧下降以及外国资本流入的逆转,将可对其经济造成严重影响;此外,地缘风险的增大可能进一步推高能源价格,而能源价格的攀升以及持续波动将增加亚太地区经济活动的风险;再者,商品价格受到冲击,将可在通胀压力与能源和食品补贴带来的预算压力之间造成困难的取舍。

According to the report, the global economy is still fragile, Asia is still serious downside risk. At present the eurozone debt crisis did not completely solve the case, the financial turmoil may exacerbate and global communication. In the Asia-Pacific region, the developed economies of the sharp decline in exports and foreign capital inflow reversed, will be available to its economy severely affected; in addition, geopolitical risk may further push the high energy prices, and the rise in energy prices and volatility will increase the activity of Asia-Pacific region economy risk; furthermore, the commodity price the impact, will be available in the inflation pressure and energy and food subsidies have budgetary pressure caused by difficult trade-offs between.

  另一方面,亚太地区的强劲增长也可能导致上行风险。由于宏观经济政策基本保持宽松,2012年全球经济和金融状况的进一步稳定可能会推动该地区的经济增长,并导致过热压力卷土重来。

On the other hand, the Asia-Pacific region 's strong growth may also lead to the upside risks. As a result of macroscopical economic policy basically maintain a relaxed, in 2012 the global economic and financial situation for further stabilization may promote economic growth in the region, and lead to overheating pressure stage a comeback.

  报告指出, 2011年后期全球复苏停顿,由于当时的不确定性,暂停宏观经济政策的正常化实属必需。但现在,亚洲的决策者们应根据情况随时进行政策调整。在经济增长强劲的国家,随着经济过热压力显现,应考虑重建紧缩周期;面临较大下行风险和那些接近中性货币政策立场的经济体或将能够保持较长时期的停顿;而那些状况比较宽松、核心通胀比较坚挺且信贷增长更为活跃的经济体,可能需要尽快回到比较中性的政策立场

The report points out, the late 2011global recovery stalled, due to the uncertainty, suspension of macroscopical economic policy normalization is needed. But now, Asian policymakers should be based on the situation at any time for policy adjustment. In the strong economic growth in the country, along with the overheated economy apparent stress, should be considered for reconstruction of tightening cycle; face greater downside risks and those close to the neutral position of the economy or monetary policy will be able to maintain a longer period of pause; while those in more relaxed, core inflation is stronger and credit growth is more active economy, may need back as soon as compared to a neutral policy stance.  



 

 

International Monetary Fund:2012 Asia-Pacific region is expected to appear strong growth国际货币基金组织:2012年亚太地区有望出现强劲增长

 


  



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